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分析人士:中國2019年煤炭進口將增長10%以上

作者:   發布時間:2019-10-23    瀏覽量:1229   字體大小:  A+   A- 

 分析人士:中國2019年煤炭進口將增長10%以上
圖片來自網絡,版權屬于原作者

來源:Hellenic Shipping News 2019-10-23
翻譯:國際海事信息網 王雅媛 張運鴻
 
       交易員和分析師周二表示,作為全球最大的煤炭買家,中國今年有望將煤炭進口增加10%以上,這與此前有關中國政府將把煤炭進口限制在與2018年相同水平的預期形成反差。

       海關數據顯示,2019年前9個月,中國的煤炭進口已經激增9.5%,達到2.5057億噸。路孚特(Refinitiv)編制的船舶跟蹤和港口數據顯示,至少1884萬噸海運煤炭將于本月抵達中國。

       一般情況下,中國每月通過卡車和火車從蒙古和俄羅斯進口約700萬噸的煤炭,今年年底前總進口量可能達到2.76億噸。
去年的總進口量為2.8123億噸。

      澳大利亞最大獨立煤礦公司懷特黑文煤炭公司(Whitehaven Coal Ltd)在周二的一份報告中表示:“中國煤炭進口量開始呈現緩慢復蘇的跡象,這引起了了最近的市場投機行為,中國政府或許會放開限制,允許每年進口量適當增加至約3億噸。”

       能源咨詢公司IHS Markit預計,中國今年可能會進口約3.2億噸煤炭。

       一些位于新加坡的煤炭交易員預計,中國煤炭進口量至少能達到3.05億噸。

       在進口增加之前,中國政府已承諾限制煤炭使用,以解決國內這一全球最大能源市場持續嚴重的污染問題。

       去年,中國采取了嚴厲措施限制煤炭進口,去年12月停止了所有主要港口的煤炭清關,這導致當月煤炭進口量從平均每月2200萬噸降至僅1000萬噸。

       IHS Markit駐北京分析師劉曉敏(Liu Xiaomin)表示:“政府目前的首要任務是提振經濟……放松煤炭進口限制將有助于維持一個溫和的煤炭價格,從而降低電價,以降低中國企業的能源成本。”

       不過,分析師和交易員警告稱,海關當局仍可能采取此類行動,并表示他們正密切關注進口政策的一切變化。

       位于北京的交易員受雇于一家領先的德國電力公司,他表示:“目前市場充滿了不確定性。我們至少要等到10月底才能看到新政策的出臺。”

       IHS Markit的劉還警告說,進口政策可能會根據煤炭價格和中國的經濟形勢隨時調整。

       不過,其他三名主要電力公司和貿易公司的交易員表示,買家并沒有放慢購買步伐,這是由于國內煤炭和進口煤炭價格之間的巨大差距,以及在下個月即將到來的中國北方供暖季節之前人們對煤炭需求的增加。

       周一,中國熱能煤(即每公斤具有5500千卡能量的煤)的港口價格為每噸約575元人民幣(81.25美元),而澳大利亞同等質量的煤的離岸價格為每噸53美元。 
 
(本文版權歸國際海事信息網所有,圖片版權歸原作者,轉載請注明出處。)
 
China’s 2019 coal imports set to rise more than 10%: analysts

China, the world’s top coal buyer, is on track to boost imports of the fuel by more than 10% this year, traders and analysts said on Tuesday, countering earlier expectations that shipments would be capped by Beijing at the same level as 2018.

China’s coal imports have already surged 9.5% in the first nine months of 2019 to 250.57 million tonnes, customs data shows, and at least 18.84 million tonnes of seaborne coal are due to arrive this month, according to vessel-tracking and port data compiled by Refinitiv.

With China typically bringing in about 7 million tonnes more a month on trucks and trains from Mongolia and Russia, total volumes are likely to reach 276 million tonnes well before the end of the year.

Last year’s total was 281.23 million tonnes.

“Signs are emerging of a modest recovery in coal import volumes into China, which has led to recent market speculation that the Chinese government may allow a relatively modest uplift in annual imports to around 300 million tonnes,” said Whitehaven Coal Ltd, Australia’s largest independent coal producer, in a note on Tuesday.

Energy consultancy IHS Markit expects that China may bring in around 320 million tonnes of coal this year.

Some Singapore-based coal traders forecast Chinese coal imports could reach at least 305 million tonnes.

The rise in imports comes even after Beijing has pledged to curb coal use to tackle persistent severe pollution in the world’s top energy market.

Last year it took drastic measures to cap its shipments, halting all clearance of coal cargoes at major ports in December, which sent imports plunging to just 10 million tonnes that month, down from an average monthly level of 22 million tonnes.

“Government priority at this moment is to boost the economy … Relaxing coal imports curb would help maintain a moderate coal price and therefore cut electricity prices in order to reduce energy costs for Chinese enterprises,” said Liu Xiaomin, analyst at IHS Markit in Beijing.

Analysts and traders warned that the customs authorities could still take such action however, and said they are closely watching for any change in import policy.

“The market is full of uncertainties at this moment. We have to wait until at least the end of October to see if a new policy will come out,” said a Beijing-based coal trader with a leading German power company.

IHS Markit’s Liu also warned the import policy may be adjusted anytime based on coal prices and the economic situation in China.

Still, buyers have not slowed their purchases, thanks to a large spread between domestic and imported coal prices and increasing demand for the fuel ahead of northern China’s heating season that kicks off next month, said three other traders with major power utilities and trading houses.

Port prices for Chinese thermal coal with energy content of 5,500 kilocalories per kilogramme (Kcal) were around 575 yuan ($81.25) a tonne on Monday, while Australian coal of the same quality was sold at $53 a tonne FOB.
 

來源:simic

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